A UK-backed trial will use AI forecasts to help air traffic controllers steer aircraft away from climate-warming contrails across part of the North Atlantic — testing whether AI can influence not just individual flights, but how an entire airspace is managed.

WHAT’S HAPPENING

Google, the UK government, NATS, the Met Office, Cambridge and Imperial College London are launching Operation Blue Skies, a 30-month trial using AI and weather forecasting to identify areas where persistent warming contrails are likely to form.

The trial will operate in Shanwick Oceanic airspace over the eastern North Atlantic during selected periods in the winters of 2026–27 and 2027–28.

About 10,000 flights are expected to pass through the trial area during operating hours each year, although only a small percentage would need to be redirected.

WHY IT MATTERS

AI has already been tested with individual airlines to help pilots avoid creating warming contrails.

Operation Blue Skies moves the idea up a level.

Instead of AI influencing only a single airline’s flight plan, its forecasts could become part of the information air traffic controllers use to manage aircraft across an entire section of international airspace.

That creates a new role for AI in aviation:

The system does not need to fly the airplane to begin influencing where airplanes fly.

WHO BENEFITS

Airlines could potentially reduce part of aviation’s climate impact without replacing aircraft or waiting for entirely new propulsion systems.

Air traffic managers gain another forecasting tool for identifying where relatively small altitude changes could make a difference.

Researchers also gain data from thousands of real-world flights rather than isolated experiments.

WHO LOSES

Some flights may burn slightly more fuel when they change altitude or route to avoid contrail-forming conditions.

Airlines and controllers also have to balance climate benefits against fuel use, congestion, safety and operational efficiency.

And AI forecasts must prove reliable enough to justify changing real-world flight operations.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

The first operational trials are scheduled for winter 2026–27, followed by additional testing in winter 2027–28.

Researchers will evaluate whether contrail avoidance can work safely and efficiently across a much larger aviation network.

If it does, the bigger shift may not be about contrails alone.

AI could become another layer of intelligence helping determine how the sky itself is managed.