In 2016, an online platform using “swarm intelligence” successfully predicted the Kentucky Derby outcome by accurately naming the top four finishers in order. However, its predictions for the following year in 2017 were significantly off. Subsequently, Slashdot assessed the performance of modern AI systems in predicting the outcomes of the Derby in 2023, 2024, and 2025, only to find that their predictions were still quite inaccurate. The question arose whether AI-generated predictions for the Derby would show improvement in 2026.
This year’s unexpected winner was “Golden Tempo,” a longshot with odds of 24-to-1. Despite many oddsmakers favoring a horse named Further Ado, which ended up finishing in 11th place, Microsoft Copilot was also inclined towards choosing Further Ado when prompted by USA Today for its selections. Ironically, Copilot even predicted that Golden Tempo would finish in 13th place.
The actual outcomes of Copilot’s picks were as follows:
1. Further Ado (finished 11th)
2. Chief Wallabee (finished 4th)
3. The Puma (SCRATCHED)
4. Renegade (finished 2nd)
5. Commandment (finished 7th)
6. So Happy (finished 9th)
7. Emerging Market (finished 10th)
8. Danon Bourbon (finished 5th)
9. Potente (finished 12th)
10. Incredibolt (finished 6th)
11. Robusta (finished 14th)
12. Ocelli (finished 3rd)
13. Golden Tempo (finished 1st)
14. Pavlovian (finished 18th)
15. Great White (SCRATCHED)
16. Wonder Dean (finished 8th)
17. Litmus Test (finished 17th)
18. Albus (finished 15th)
19. Six Speed (finished 13th)
20. Intrepido (finished 16th)
USA Today instructed Copilot to consider the latest odds, conditions, expert analysis, favorites, best bets, previous results, race history, and post positions while making predictions for the race. On the other hand, Yahoo Sports requested Claude to simulate the race based on opening odds, draw positions, potential track conditions, and human predictions.
Similar to Microsoft Copilot, Claude also chose Further Ado as its top pick for first place despite it finishing in eleventh place and incorrectly predicted that Golden Tempo would come in twelfth place — who went on to secure first place in reality.
The results of Claude’s picks were as follows:
1. Further Ado (finished 11th)
2. The Puma (SCRATCHED)
3. Commandment (finished 7th)
4.Chief Wallabee(finished4 th)
5.Renegade(finished2 nd)
6.Emerging Market(finished10 th)
7.So Happy(finished9 th)
8.Incredibolt(finished6 th)
9.Danon Bourbon(finished5 th)
10.Potente(finished12 th)
11.Pavlovian(finished18 th)
12.Golden Tempo(finished1 st)
13.Litmus Test(finished17 th)
14.Albus(finished15 th)
15.Wonder Dean(finished8 th)
16.Six Speed(finished13 th)
17.Intrepido(finished16 th).