The World Economic Forum predicts that artificial intelligence (AI) will transform the nature of work by 2030, with only one possible future scenario that can prevent significant worker displacement. Outlining four potential AI-driven job scenarios for 2030, the WEF cautions that most pathways entail disruptions for employees. Among these futures, the “Co-Pilot Economy” stands out as the sole scenario designed to minimize displacement by enhancing workers’ skill sets. Opinions among AI leaders vary widely, ranging from bleak forecasts of job losses to optimistic promises of increased productivity and shorter workweeks.

In a white paper titled “Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy: AI and Talent in 2030,” released on Wednesday, the organization presents four potential scenarios based on the pace of AI advancement and the readiness of workers and institutions to adapt. These scenarios encompass rapid AI progress as well as slower, more erratic developments. The “Co-Pilot Economy” scenario is specifically crafted to mitigate widespread job displacement by ensuring that AI implementation is gradual and that workers possess the necessary skills to utilize technology as a complement rather than a replacement.

Even in this more positive scenario, changes are ongoing. The report notes that while displacement and job turnover have increased, there is a growing perception among governments, businesses, and workers that AI represents an opportunity rather than a threat. The other three scenarios are characterized by varying degrees of disruption, differing in terms of speed and impact.

In one scenario labeled the “Age of Displacement,” AI advances outpace educational and retraining systems, leading companies to aggressively automate processes and leaving many workers struggling to keep up. In another scenario called “Stalled Progress,” although AI continues to evolve, productivity gains are unevenly distributed among firms and regions, resulting in declining job quality and widening inequality. The third scenario, “Supercharged Progress,” envisions explosive AI breakthroughs driving economic growth but also rendering numerous existing roles obsolete faster than new ones can emerge.

Nonetheless, some experts caution against expecting a straightforward progression along any single trajectory. James Ransom, a research fellow at University College London, highlights substantial variations in AI progress and workforce preparedness across different industries, jobs, and regions, suggesting that disruption will be uneven rather than universal. While he anticipates accelerated displacement in the coming years, he believes that most workers will likely still be employed by 2030.

According to the Forum, the future landscape of work will not be solely shaped by technological advancements but will also be influenced by policy decisions, corporate strategies, and investments in skills development. Saadia Zahidi, a managing director at the WEF, emphasizes that the four outlined scenarios do not serve as definitive predictions for 2030 but rather as a framework to assist leaders in preparing for the evolving global economic landscape.

Disagreement persists among tech leaders and AI researchers regarding how profoundly disruptive AI will be to employment. Noteworthy figures like Geoffrey Hinton and Dario Amodei have issued warnings about extensive automation potentially replacing numerous white-collar positions within a few years. Conversely, individuals such as Aaron Levie and Jensen Huang anticipate significant productivity gains through AI adoption despite certain roles becoming obsolete. A more optimistic outlook shared by Mustafa Suleyman and Eric Yuan suggests that ultimately, AI will complement human labor rather than replace it.