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What Will ‘The Scream’ Look Like in 300 Years? This Tool Simulates Its Future

A Tool Predicts the Future Appearance of ‘The Scream’ in 300 Years
The tool serves as a captivating concept that holds potential for usefulness among researchers and conservators.
At times, the faded colors of ancient artwork possess a unique aesthetic appeal. For example, consider the striking visual impact of Greek marble statues in their original vibrant hues. Similarly, some renowned artworks that we admire today will likely undergo significant visual transformations in the future—and this innovative tool demonstrates precisely how that might unfold.
In a recent announcement, the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) introduced the Light Damage Estimator, an advanced digital application designed to simulate the gradual fading of pigments used in paintings over time. This tool offers adjustable parameters for color, light source, intensity, and duration of exposure. Although currently tailored to analyze susceptible colors in Edvard Munch’s masterpiece, The Scream, the research team aims to enhance the model’s functionalities.
In the realm of synthetic pigments like paint, not all hues are equal. Essentially, these paints consist of chemical compounds engineered to exhibit specific colors. Consequently, artificial colors adhere to chemical principles. As molecular bonds within these pigments deteriorate, the colors inevitably lose their vibrancy.
Irina-Mihaela Ciortan, a postdoctoral researcher leading the project at NTNU, speculated that similar degradation processes would affect a vivid artwork like Munch’s The Scream. Despite advancements in conservation methods, it is nearly impossible to retain molecular stability indefinitely—particularly for colors such as yellow or red that are prone to light-induced alterations over time,” Ciortan elaborated.
To obtain data for their tool, Ciortan and her colleagues utilized X-ray fluorescence to determine the chemical composition of pigment colors in Munch’s renowned painting. The analysis revealed various compounds like mercury in cinnabar for red tones, cadmium for yellow shades, and cobalt in cobalt blue and ultramarine hues.
Subsequently, they replicated the painting based on this information and subjected it to various aging tests within a controlled climate chamber. These synthetic replicas underwent accelerated aging processes involving intense humidity and lighting conditions over several days while the team monitored any changes in color fidelity.
“The rationale behind using replicas with identical properties to the original painting was to observe shifts that could mirror past and potential future alterations in The Scream,” explained the researchers. It was from these datasets that the Light Damage Estimator emerged.
Nevertheless, at present, the Light Damage Estimator remains more of a fascinating experiment than a practical tool applicable across all conservation scenarios. The team acknowledges that its current model predominantly focuses on The Scream and a limited selection of artworks while concentrating on cadmium yellow and cinnabar red—the most light-sensitive colours. Every journey begins with a single step.
To advance this initiative further, the team intends to collaborate with conservators to gather additional data for refining their model while accounting for diverse environmental factors. Moreover, they contemplate integrating AI tools to automate aspects of their simulation.
“Until we address these challenges effectively, it may be advantageous to collaborate with museums possessing data similar to what we employed in our study,” suggested Ciortan.